ICT Industry Analysis
Prospective Insights on R&D in ICT
- The main objective of the PREDICT project is to provide an analysis of private and public R&D investments in the EU Information and Communication Technology (ICT) sector
- It also analyses ICT R&D performance through a worldwide analysis of patenting in ICT
- It developed in its first phase an analysis of the increasing internationalisation of ICT R&D
- In its second phase that started in 2011, PREDICT will also analyse macroeconomic impacts of ICT R&D through a modelling approach
PREDICT has become a unique source of information on ICT R&D investments in the EU, also benchmarking them against those of the EU's main global competitors. PREDICT combines in a unique way three complementary perspectives: national statistics (covering both private and public R&D expenditures), company data, and technology-based indicators. It relies on the latest available official statistics delivered by Member States, Eurostat and the OECD. This data still contains gaps and where this is the case, rigorous cross-checking and estimating methods have been applied by JRC-IPTS to provide the study with the necessary set of data.
PREDICT publishes annual reports. The analysis published in 2013 includes data up to 2010. The annual report, as previously published, will be also complemented by three additional reports further developing some of the key themes addressed by the project, such as, R&D investments by the world top-R&D investing companies from the ICT sector, performance of ICT R&D
D and macroeconomic modelling of ICT R&D (see "IPTS Reports" below).
PREDICT is co-financed by JRC-IPTS and the
Communications Networks, Content and Technology Directorate General of the European Commission.
PREDICT 2013 confirms some findings based on ICT R&D trends across the years 2006 – 2010:
- The EU ICT sector saw a reduction in its share in total value added, business expenditure in R&D (BERD), R&D personnel and R&D researchers over the period 2006-2010, while its share in terms of employment remained stable.
- The EU ICT services sector performed better than the ICT manufacturing sector since the former showed more positive results than the economy as a whole in all the variables analyzed. More specifically, it experienced an almost nil employment reduction and a positive rate of growth in the BERD variable for the whole period analyzed.
- The US kept the lead in all variables —but especially in two of them, ICT sector labour productivity and BERD intensity— widening the gap with the EU.
- Europe has been, and is still, lagging behind its main competitors in terms of ICT R&D investment and ICT R&D patenting. The R&D investment lag is largely due to the size of European ICT companies. As compared with US ICT companies, they are smaller and did not grow as fast in the last decades. This is a particular weakness in the most promising segments, for example in the Computer Services and Software ICT sub-sector, where EU Internet companies have failed so far to achieve a truly global scale.
- ICT R&D investments by firms from Asia as a whole are rising more rapidly than those by firms from the EU or the US, but are still comparatively lower.
- While ICT patenting by EU and US-based inventors has remained stable in the last decade, ICT patenting by China-based inventors has boomed. This was also the case for Korea, where it started 10 years earlier.
- International cooperation in ICT R&D is evolving from a dominant EU-US relation towards global networking, where the US-Asia relation is taking a growing share. Here also, it seems that US companies are able to grasp opportunities more rapidly than EU ones.